A crowning Netflix drama is set to pull off the near-impossible. If it does, it’s going to have a very good night.
The crème de la crème of American television will descend on Hollywood to give themselves many, many pats on jobs well done.
And for the most part, it is jobs well done. The Emmy Awards aren’t known for being renegades like those embattled Golden Globes folks.
So, before the envelopes are opened, and you add yet more series to that ever-expanding watchlist, we take a look at which shows might be the big winners and which might go home empty-handed.
DRAMA SERIES
When the nominations came out, there are some expected and some surprising contenders in the Drama field. The Crown (Netflix) and The Mandalorian (Disney+) both nabbed 24 nods apiece, though the vast majority of The Mandalorian’s nominations were in the craft categories.
While nominees such as violent superhero show The Boys (Amazon Prime) was a surprise. Equally surprising – but very much deserved – was the turnout for the final season of Pose (Binge/Foxtel), which got nods in Drama Series as well as both Lead acting categories.
Meanwhile, HBO’s cosmic horror series Lovecraft Country (Binge/Foxtel*) represented well too – and the award it’s most likely to pick up will be bittersweet, which is a Supporting Actor gong for Michael K. Williams, who died last week at age 54.
Voting had already closed by the time of Williams’ death but after many penetrating performances ranging from The Wire to When They See Us, momentum was already building behind a Williams win.
A Williams victory would be a spoiler for what is increasingly looking likely to be a sweep for The Crown if he were to beat out Tobias Menzies.
The fourth season of the Netflix royal drama was critically well received and had the benefit of telling a dramatic – and within recent memory – chapter of the Windsors’ history.
Newcomer Emma Corrin is a near-lock as Best Actress for her vulnerable portrayal of a young Diana, with her main challenge to come from Pose’s Mj Rodriguez, who would make history as the first trans actor to win a Primetime Emmy if she pipped Corrin.
Other nominees include Corrin’s co-star Olivia Colman, but Corrin had the flashier role, and Elisabeth Moss for The Handmaid’s Tale (Moss has won previously)
Corrin’s scene partner Josh O’Connor, who played a sympathetic Prince Charles in the third season before flashing his more menacing streak, is similarly expected to win. O’Connor and Corrin have both won plenty of metal for their roles in the lead-up, including the Critics’ Choice.
The spoiler for O’Connor would be Billy Porter, who has previously won an Emmy in the category for Pose. The other contenders include Jonathan Majors, Matthew Rhys, Sterling K. Brown and Rege-Jean Page.
Page is nominated for Bridgerton (Netflix), which was a popular sensation when it debuted over Christmas and Page was the break-out star who is also not returning for the second season. While he’s certainly charismatic, his inclusion here is already arguably a surprise – he wasn’t the strongest performer in that show.
Gillian Anderson is favourite to win in Best Supporting Actress for her uncanny portrayal of Margaret Thatcher, evoking the Iron Lady’s steeliness. The Handmaid’s Tale’s (SBS) Ann Dowd is Anderson’s biggest competitor.
The Crown is also running first in both the Directing and Writing categories and is widely expected to take home Best Drama Series when all is said and done.
You only need to look at the Creative Arts Emmys where Claire Foy won Drama Guest Actress for a two-minute performance in which she read aloud a speech to know that there is deep and wide love for The Crown among Emmys voters.
Which likely leaves The Mandalorian, The Handmaid’s Tale, Pose, Bridgerton, Lovecraft Country, The Boys and This Is Us smiling and clapping politely.
And if Tobias Menzies can hold off Michael K. Williams, The Crown could repeat that near-impossible clean sweep Schitt’s Creek managed last year.
DRAMA PREDICTIONS:
Series:The Crown
Lead Actress: Emma Corrin, The Crown
Lead Actor: Josh O’Connor, The Crown
Supporting Actress: Gillian Anderson, The Crown
Supporting Actor: Michael K. Williams, Lovecraft Country
Writing:The Crown
Directing:The Crown
COMEDY SERIES
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) was the dominant series from the nominations, clocking up a record 20 nods for a freshman comedy. The second season was even timed, deliberately or not, to coincide with the voting period.
But that’s where the timing may not have actually worked out for Ted Lasso. With its week-by-week release, Ted Lasso’s second season has its share of vocal detractors who criticised the series for doing away with conflict – the conflict is there but didn’t properly kick in until more recent episodes, where the characterisation also deepened.
The backlash spawned a whole “Does Ted Lasso’s second season suck?” discourse. Of course, whether voters pay any attention to online pop culture discourse is the question.
So, Ted Lasso, an appealing series about an American football coach in England that places kindness and decency at its heart, may not be the unstoppable force it once seemed.
Even so, it is still the favourite to win at least Comedy Series and Best Actor for co-creator, writer and star Jason Sudeikis. Sudeikis has had an easy run in the lead-up, having won the Golden Globe and SAG. Michael Douglas for The Kominsky Method (Netflix) remains the only real other contender.
Ted Lasso’s strongest competition in a strange field – is Cobra Kai (Netflix) really a comedy and why does Emily in Paris keep popping up like burnt toast – is Hacks (Stan), the witty and acerbic generational clash series about a legendary stand-up comic and a younger writer.
Hacks has a passionate fan base and lead star Jean Smart is almost certain to collect the gong in Lead Actress after a storied career that’s really picked up momentum again in the past few years. Smart is almost nominated in Limited Series Best Supporting Actress for her work in Mare of Easttown.
If anyone is going to rain on Smart’s parade, it might be Kaley Cuoco for The Flight Attendant (Binge/Foxtel), which she also produced. The Flight Attendant was a surprise hit and the reason the wacky murder mystery works is because of a committed performance from Cuoco.
The Supporting acting categories are more competitive by virtue of Ted Lasso and Saturday Night Live (Foxtel) stars stacking up the slots and potentially cancelling each other out.
In Supporting Actress, Ted Lasso’s Hannah Waddingham and Juno Temple are both up while Saturday Night Live’s Aidy Bryant, Cecily Strong and Kate McKinnon are in contention. Which leaves Hacks’ Hannah Einbinder and The Flight Attendant’s Rosie Perez the potential beneficiaries of any vote splitting.
Waddingham is the narrow favourite at the moment and never count out repeat winner McKinnon. The Emmys love a repeat winner.
On the Supporting Actor side, Kenan Thompson from SNL is the sentimental frontrunner with voters keen to reward him for 18 years on the show. There was speculation he was poised to leave but he’s quashed those rumours with a commitment to make it to 20. His castmate Bowen Yang is also seen as a strong contender.
Meanwhile, what’s working against Ted Lasso in this category is that there are four of them – Brett Goldstein, Brendan Hunt, Nick Mohammed and Jeremy Swift. Goldstein the most likely to win if any of them are with his scene-stealing Roy Kent character.
But as the Game of Thrones actors found out in 2019 when four of them were up in Best Supporting Actress, it doesn’t pay to be part of the collective – Ozark’s Julia Garner snuck through.
If that happens again, it could be looking good for Hacks’ Carl Clemons-Hopkins and The Kominsky Method’s Paul Reiser. But both are considered long shots.
Ted Lasso is also looking good in the Writing and Directing categories, but it’s nominated multiple times in both so either Hacks or The Flight Attendant could ultimately triumph.
COMEDY PREDICTIONS
Series:Ted Lasso
Lead Actor: Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Lead Actress: Jean Smart, Hacks
Supporting Actor: Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live
Supporting Actress: Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
Writing:Hacks
Directing:Ted Lasso
LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE
These are sometimes confusing categories because anthology shows, which have previously been eligible to compete in the Movies section is now strictly in Limited Series. And the awards are split in the main but not in the acting, writing or directing awards where they’re all made to compete together.
Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square (Netflix) already won the anaemic Movie category at the Creative Arts ceremony, but the rest of the awards have been reserved for the televised Primetime ceremony.
The main Limited or Anthology Series award has become one of the most competitive, especially with its tight five-slot limit compared to the higher allowances in Drama and Comedy. And we all know some of the best shows on TV and streaming now are miniseries.
This year, it’s a very competitive field, with no room for fillers – I May Destroy You (Binge/Foxtel), Mare of Easttown (Binge/Foxtel), The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix), The Underground Railroad (Amazon Prime) and WandaVision (Disney+).
This is looking to be a two-horse race between Mare of Easttown and The Queen’s Gambit.
Mare has the critical plaudits and an irresistible Kate Winslet performance, but The Queen’s Gambit was widely watched and very popular. Many people are also only just discovering Anya Taylor-Joy’s talent, having missed her rise for the past few years in critically acclaimed horror and thriller movies.
We’re giving Winslet the edge over Taylor-Joy in Lead Actress because it’s hard to overlook a movie star in her first TV role in 10 years – and one who knocked it out of the park.
The series award is an almost dead heat between the two, a detective drama and a period chess drama, but we’ll throw our support behind Mare, which had a more consistent cast and writing.
Mare also looks good to pick up Supporting Actor for Evan Peters, who turns in a more grounded performance than you normally see from him while Julianne Nicholson, with her heart-rending final scene, is a definite possibility in Supporting Actress but may ultimately lose out to WandaVision’s Kathryn Hahn.
The Lead Actor category is less competitive but that’s no slight against frontrunner Paul Bettany whose portrayal of a sentient android in WandaVision was more emotionally layered than it had the right to be.
Hugh Grant in The Undoing is the other contender but the poorly plotted The Undoing (Binge/Foxtel) didn’t pick up any other nominations so there’s not a lot of support for the series as a whole.
Leslie Odom Jr, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Renee Elise Goldsberry, Phillipa Soo and Daveed Diggs are all nominated for Hamilton (Disney+), and the sheer volume of them showing up is a puzzler in itself. Hopefully, voters will remember that Hamilton was a stage production and the filmed version released on streaming was recorded in 2016.
One of the many controversies around this year’s Golden Globes was the shut-out of I May Destroy You, Micaela Coel’s withering series about sexual trauma.
The Emmys made good with a raft of nominations, but the series was out more than a year ago so where it is most likely to be awarded is in Writing, which would recognise Coel’s authorial voice and personal connection to her series.
Which leaves Barry Jenkins’ The Underground Railroad likely to leave empty-handed. Jenkins’ slavery series was acclaimed and admired but not widely watched.
This whole category really could swing either way and see either Mare or The Queen’s Gambit – which won a ton of craft Emmys – clean up big.
LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE PREDICTIONS
Series:The Mare of Easttown
Lead Actress: Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown
Lead Actor: Paul Bettany, Mare of Easttown
Supporting Actress: Julianne Nicholson, Mare of Easttown
Supporting Actor: Evan Peters, Mare of Easttown
Writing:I May Destroy You
Directing:The Queen’s Gambit
The Emmys will be broadcast on Fox Arena on Foxtel on Monday, September 20 at 10am AEST
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*Foxtel and Binge are majority owned by News Corp, publisher of news.com.au
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2021-09-19 03:59:48Z
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