Minggu, 04 Agustus 2019

Box Office: 'Hobbs & Shaw' Opens With Strong $181 Million Worldwide Weekend - Forbes

Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw began its box office sprint with a $60.8 million domestic launch and $120 million overseas. That number does not include China, where this franchise is a monster, as the film won't open there until August 23. Considering Furious 7 and Fate of the Furious both over/under $393 million in China alone in 2015 and 2017, you can make the case that the jury is still out as to how big this film will be until we see how it plays there.

Purely discussing domestic figures, the Dwayne Johnson/Jason Statham actioner, teaming up the hero cop from Fast Five with the supervillain from Furious 7, pulled a perfectly solid debut. Yes, it was the lowest (sans inflation) Fast & Furious opening since The Fast & the Furious: Tokyo Drift opened with $26 million in 2006. That one was arguably the first spin-off of the franchise since it contained barely a whiff of franchise continuity.

That spin-off was a kind of good news/bad news scenario. It bombed ($158 million worldwide on an $85 million budget), but it provided a scene-stealing supporting character (Sung Kang's Han) and relative newbie director (Justin Lin) who would both help the franchise revamp itself to fortune and glory. Three years later, Universal would again hire Justin Lin to helm Fast & Furious, a straight-up sequel to The Fast & The Furious.

Fast & Furious, starring Vin Diesel, Paul Walker, Michelle Rodriguez, Jordana Brewster and newbie Gal Gadot, was a prequel to Tokyo Drift (so that Sung Kang could return despite dying in the last movie). It would open with a jaw-dropping $70 million debut in April of 2009 and speed its way to $155 million. With a $366 million cume, it was the first entry to make more of its money overseas.

It was a pioneering case of essentially manufactured nostalgia ("New Model, Original Parts"). The Fast & Furious franchise became a de-facto cinematic universe well before the MCU because it took nine years to get an "everybody back in the pool" sequel. 2 Fast 2 Furious had Paul Walker but no Vin Diesel, while Tokyo Drift had neither.

But those two sequels, along with Fast & Furious, offered a bunch of new and colorful supporting characters who all showed up with bells on for Fast Five. Essentially The Avengers a year before The Avengers, Justin Lin’s Fast Five pitted Dom and his "family" against both a corrupt politician and a righteous cop played by Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson. In what still qualifies as a modern cinematic miracle, this fifth installment of a merely okay/pulpy/whatever series turned out to be one of the best action movies of the new century.

The Fast & Furious is a franchise that essentially began as a series of spin-offs. It ironically went into hyper-drive commercially once they got back on the straight-up sequel route, which should have been a clue that audiences didn't want cinematic universes as a matter of course. The only reason to judge this film's performance considering its recent predecessors (Fast Five, Fast & Furious 6, Furious 7 and Fate of the Furious) is that it cost around $200 million.

That's more than any of the previous installments save for F8 and (counting insurance-covered expenses related to Paul Walker's death) Furious 7. Heck, unless I'm missing one, this may be Universal's third-most expensive movie after Fate of the Furious and Furious 7. To be fair, they don't tend to drop zillions on each movie. Even the last two Jurassic World films cost between $150 million and $170 million.

Hobbs & Shaw opened just over/under the respective opening weekends of Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation ($55 million in 2015), Jason Bourne ($59 million in 2016), Mission: Impossible - Fallout ($62 million in 2018) and John Wick: Chapter 3 ($56 million in 2019). If it ends up earning anywhere near the last three Mission: Impossible movies ($682 million-to-$792 million) or Fast & Furious 6 ($788 million) globally, then all will be well. But that budget means it's a spin-off that must earn comparatively to its franchise predecessors.

The franchise, at least in North America, will balance two competing variables. On the one hand, the Fast & Furious movies aren't very leggy and haven't been since Fast & Furious ($155 million from that $70 million launch). If it merely legs out like a standard F&F movie, we're looking at a multiplier between 2.21x ($134 million domestic) and 2.43x ($147 million).

That would be a genuine disappointment, both due to the budget, the franchise history and because it would mean the film has to depend on an overseas bailout. There is another big variable at play. Hobbs & Shaw is the last big movie of the summer, and it'll be the last "event movie" in theaters between now and It Chapter Two just after Labor Day.

And it'll bet the last kid-friendly biggie at least until Ang Lee's PG-13 "Will Smith versus Will Smith" actioner Gemini Man on October 11. The designated "last biggie of the summer" flicks tend to leg out whether they are very good (The Sixth Sense) or very bad (Suicide Squad). The last two Mission: Impossible movies both pulled 3.5x multipliers, as did Guardians of the Galaxy in 2014.

At worst, we're probably looking at a 2.43x multiplier like Suicide Squad, but realistically speaking I'd argue the "pessimistic" scenario is closer to Straight Outta Compton (2.677 x its $60 million launch in August of 2015). That would still be "only" $162 million domestic, but c'est la vie. A 2.9x (TMNT) multiplier would give it a $177 million finish, which at least would put it over John Wick 3.

A multiplier like Jason Bourne (2.745 x its $59 million debut in August of 2016) or Spectre (2.85 x its $70 million bow in November of 2015) gets Hobbs & Shaw between $166 million and $172 million. A run like The Meg (3.25 x its $44 million debut in August of 2018) or the last two Mission: Impossible movies gets it between $198 million and $211 million. That would be right in the ballpark in terms of the franchise average.

Nonetheless, it earned $180.8 million worldwide this weekend, and a 2.6x global multiplier (like Furious 7's combined $579 million weekend toward a $1.516 billion finish) puts it at around $471 million, without China. Conversely, a global multiplier (sans China for now) like Fate of the Furious (2.25 x $550 million = $1.236 billion) gives it only $407 million. The important caveat is that China is waiting in the wings on August 23.

Fast & Furious 6 earned $66 million in China in 2013, while Furious 7 earned $392 million there in 2015 and Fate of the Furious earned $393 million in 2017. The franchise got super-duper popular within two years, and (all due respect) I don't think it was about Chinese audiences mourning the untimely demise of Paul Walker. Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham are both notable draws in China, as is Vin Diesel.

To what extent will this spin-off play like a Fast & Furious movie as opposed to a general Rock, Statham and/or Diesel flick? On the one hand, you have Rampage's $156 million gross, The Meg's $153 million gross and xXx: The Return of Xander Cage's $164 million gross. On the other, you've got Furious 7's $392 million gross and Fate of the Furious' $393 million gross.

That distinction, along with the global multiplier outside of China, will mean the difference between a $550 million-$650 million global cume and an over/under $725 million finish. It's almost certain to be the year's biggest Hollywood release that isn't a Disney and/or MCU movie. But it would be nice for summer to allow for at least one mega-blockbuster outside those parameters.

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2019/08/04/box-office-hobbs-shaw-fast-furious-lion-king-dwayne-johnson-statham-elba-diesel-wick-keanu-reeves-cruise-damon-bourne-james-bond/

2019-08-04 14:40:39Z
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